Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 October 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
11/0842Z from Region 3112 (N22W54). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 11/0419Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4649 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Oct) and quiet levels on
days two and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 150 Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 150/150/146 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 009/012-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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