Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 October 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
11/2121Z from Region 3119 (N28W18). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
averaged ~375 km/s. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 6216 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 Oct, 14 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (15 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 141 Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 12 Oct 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 30% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Tuesday, 8 October 2024
Double X-flares, glancing blow possible
Latest forum messages
AR13883 2024/11/04 CME 28Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1564What devices are good for shooting aurora VIDEO with? 17AR13889 21AR 13883 224
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |