Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 October 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Oct 22 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Oct 2022	109	023
23 Oct 2022	110	035
24 Oct 2022	110	034

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare recorded was a C6.4-class flare, originating from beyond the west limb with peak time of 05:42 UTC on October 22. A new active region emerged in the south-west quadrant during the period, numbered NOAA AR3128, but did not produce any significant flaring activity. The two remaining active regions, NOAA 3127 and NOAA 3126, grew slightly. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares are expected, with a small chance for an M-class flare.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections were observed in the last 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached the 1000 pfu alert threshold on October 21 before decreasing. It is expected to be below threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at this level in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed ranged between 340 and 390 km/s. The total magnetic field (Bt) increased from 5 to 12 nT, while its Bz component reached -10nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle switched from being in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) to the positive sector(directed away from the Sun). Over the next 24 hours, the interplanetary magnetic field values are expected to remain enhanced. Another high-speed stream is also expected from October 23 associated with the negative polarity coronal hole, which began to cross the central meridian on October 20.

Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm conditions 22 October 09-12 UTC (NOAA Kp 5 and local K-dourbes 4 ). In the next 24 hours the conditions are expected to be active, with moderate storm conditions possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 061, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Oct 2022

Wolf number Catania	070
10cm solar flux	109
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	053 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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