Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 October 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
22/0542Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Oct,
24 Oct, 25 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 418 km/s at 22/2044Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 22/0714Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 22/1220Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 572 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (23 Oct) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 105 Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 018/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 020/025-011/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 40% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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