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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
23/1822Z from Region 3130 (S24E09). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Oct,
25 Oct, 26 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 23/1411Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 23/1659Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
22/2220Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 175 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (25 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (26
Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 108 Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 104/100/100 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 087/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 012/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 014/017-010/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 35% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
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| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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