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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
02/0214Z from Region 3135 (N26E00). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Nov,
04 Nov, 05 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 544 km/s at 02/2045Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 02/1647Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
02/1833Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 6466 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (04 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(05 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Nov 130 Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 130/130/135 90 Day Mean 02 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 084/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 011/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 010/012-008/012-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 55% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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