Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 November 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 29/1358Z from Region 3151 (S16W88). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 721 km/s at 29/1532Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 28/2117Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 29/0038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1709 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (30 Nov, 01 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Nov 108
  Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec 110/110/105
  90 Day Mean        29 Nov 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  018/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Nov  018/026
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  016/022-017/025-014/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%35%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm60%60%50%

All times in UTC

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