Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 November 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
30/1617Z from Region 3151 (S16W0*). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Dec,
02 Dec, 03 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 708 km/s at 30/1858Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 30/1826Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 30/1732Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 9440 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Dec), quiet to
active levels on day two (02 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (03 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 111 Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 115/115/120 90 Day Mean 30 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 020/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 019/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 017/025-014/020-011/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 50% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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