Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 December 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
27/0054Z from Region 3176 (N19E50). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(28 Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 27/0321Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 27/0351Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 27/0426Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1630 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (28 Dec), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (29 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day
three (30 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Dec NA Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 27 Dec 131 estimated
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 019/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 018/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 010/015-008/010-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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