Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 December 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 28/0256Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 562 km/s at 28/0526Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/2041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/0441Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1147 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Dec) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
Class M35%35%30%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Dec 160
  Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec 158/156/154
  90 Day Mean        28 Dec 134

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  016/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Dec  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  008/010-013/016-011/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%35%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm20%25%50%

All times in UTC

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