Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 November 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Nov 17 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Nov 2022	133	012
18 Nov 2022	131	011
19 Nov 2022	138	032

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity has been low, with mostly low level C flares being recorded in the past 24 hours. Almost all of them from the three Catania groups 88, 89, 97 (NOAA active regions 3140, 3141, 3145) that are now close to the limb. The strongest was a C6.1 flare peaking at 9:28UTC. Within those three regions, development could be seen in Catania group 97, but all three are now getting too close to the limb to allow proper analysis. The other regions appear simple and mostly quiet. This includes the regions that recently rotated onto the disc: two small bipolar groups Catania 99 and 2 (NOAA active regions 3148 and 3149) and a larger but unipolar Catania group 1 (NOAA active region 3147). Flaring at C level is expected, with only a limited chance for an isolated M flare.

A filament eruption from the southern hemisphere occurred just before noon yesterday. The associated CME as visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images from 13:25UTC onwards is directed to the southwest, fairly narrow and slow. It is not expected to influence Earth. No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

A negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere is transiting the central meridian and is expected to influence solar wind conditions from November 19 onwards.

Solar wind has since this morning seen a slow gradual increase in the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field (but still just reaching 6nT), then followed by also a steady increase in solar wind speed to around 375km/s. The magnetic field orientation switched into a positive sector (field away from the Sun) around 9UTC. These expected slight enhancements could still set through today, but should be followed by a period of return to slow solar wind conditions. A more significant enhancement is expected by November 19 due to the high speed stream from the negative polarity coronal hole on the southern hemisphere which is currently transiting central meridian.

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp between 0-1+ and local K Dourbes 0-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled with occasional active periods possible related to the expected solar wind perturbations. From November 19 geomagnetic activity is expected to increase possibly reaching minor storm levels under influence of the expected high speed stream conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 062, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Nov 2022

Wolf number Catania	084
10cm solar flux	133
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	072 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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