Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 November 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Nov 19 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Nov 2022	117	017
20 Nov 2022	117	040
21 Nov 2022	117	016

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was low, with most of the flares, as well as the most significant flares, originating from the region that newly emerged in the northwestern quadrant, NOAA active region 3150. The strongest flare was a C8.3 flare peaking at 6:23UTC. NOAA active region 3150 emerged fairly rapidly as a moderately sized bipolar region. The other three regions that were already on disc all showed formation of additional spots and both NOAA active region 3147 and 3148 also produced some low level C flaring. Flaring at C level is likely.

The C8.3 flare was associated with a dimming in EUV images indicative of CME initiation. And it was shortly after also followed by the eruption of a filament from the northeastern quadrant. We are awaiting corresponding coronagraph images to assess any possible Earth directed ejecta. In current SoHO/LASCO coronagraph data two earlier CMEs are visible towards the northwest (November 18 9:36UTC in LASCO C2 field of view), and towards the southwest (before 3:48 today). These are both originating from at or beyond the western limb and are not expected to affect Earth.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

A negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere is still transiting the central meridian and is expected to influence solar wind conditions from today onwards.

Solar wind conditions became slightly enhanced with especially the magnitude of the magnetic field building up to 12nT while the speed increased with a jump to just under 400 km/s around 22:30UTC. Over the course of this build up, the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field evolved gradually from pronounced southward to pronounced northward. The magnetic field orientation was briefly indicating outward magnetic field (away form the Sun) but is now clearly indicating connection to a negative sector again (field towards the Sun). Solar wind speed is expect to increase again and above 500 km/s later today with the onset of the expected high speed stream conditions related to the coronal hole in the southern hemisphere.

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled with a local active period (NOAA Kp between 0+-3 and local K Dourbes 0-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to active with a possibility for minor storm levels being reached in the next 24-48 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 064, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Nov 2022

Wolf number Catania	044
10cm solar flux	116
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	048 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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