Viewing archive of Friday, 16 December 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Dec 16 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Dec 2022	169	003
17 Dec 2022	168	007
18 Dec 2022	167	022

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours, solar flaring activity was at moderate levels with 12 M-class flares and a large amount of C-class flares. The largest flare observed was a M5.7 flare originating from Catania group 17 (NOAA AR 3165). This Catania group produced almost all of the flaring activity over the past 24 hours. Catania group 21 (NOAA AR 3163) was the source of an M2.1 class flare and there were also 2 M-class flares associated with the active region just beyond the north-east limb that is expected to rotate onto the solar disk in the coming days. Catania group 17 (NOAA AR 3165) and 21 (NOAA AR 3163) still show a complex magnetic field topology (beta-delta and beta-gamma-delta) and as such, we expect solar flaring activity to remain at moderate levels for the next 24 hours with M-class flares expected and a slight chance for an X-class flare. The high solar activity from Catania group 17 (NOAA 3165), which is still well-connected to the Earth, could be associated with a particle event.

During the last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed coronal mass ejections detected in the available coronagraph observations.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the minor storm threshold. Due to the increased flaring activity there is a small chance that the greater than 10 MeV proton flux may exceed this threshold over the next 24 hours if there are further high energy flares and eruptions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels over the past 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters reflect slow solar wind conditions. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed varied between about 320 and 360 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field had a magnitude of 5-6nT. From late on Dec 17 the solar wind speed and magnetic field are expected to become enhanced in response to the expected high speed stream associated with the negative polarity coronal hole, which began to cross the central meridian on Dec 14.

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet and we expect such a geomagnetic conditions to persist in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 131, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Dec 2022

Wolf number Catania	156
10cm solar flux	166
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	148 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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