Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 January 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Jan 12 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Jan 2023	195	006
13 Jan 2023	193	005
14 Jan 2023	193	005

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours. The strongest detected activity was an M1.6-class flare, peak time 06:50 UTC on Jan 12th, produced by NOAA AR 3186 (beta-delta), which exhibited significant growth and was responsible for another low M-class flaring. NOAA AR 3184 (beta-gamma-delta) has further increased its size and complexity, but produced only C-class flaring, the strongest one being a C8.1-class with peak time 21:00 UTC on Jan 11th. High C-class flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3181 (beta-gamma), which has shown some decay. NOAA AR 3182 (beta-gamma) has slightly decayed and remained quiet. The remaining active regions are either simple and quiet or have decayed to plage. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with likely isolated M-class flares and some chances for X-class flaring.

A wide south-east coronal mass ejection (CME) was first detected in LASCO C2 imagery at 17 UTC on Jan 11th. The eruption was accompanied by a large on disk dimming later that day. The bulk of this eruption is estimated to miss Earth, but there is a minor chance for a glancing blow in the UTC morning of Jan 16th. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions (ACE and DSCOVR) have remained slightly elevated under the potential mild influenced of a high speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 357 km/s to 468 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field peaked at 9 nT with a minimum Bz of -7.86 nT. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced for the day and return towards ambient slow solar wind conditions after. The solar wind conditions could be slightly elevated on Jan 16th due to a possible glancing blow arrival from a wide south-east CME which lifted off the solar surface on Jan 11th.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 185, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Jan 2023

Wolf number Catania	117
10cm solar flux	195
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	174 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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