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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 11/1140Z from Region 3153 (S17W59). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 531 km/s at 11/1753Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/1355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/1352Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Dec 148
  Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec 145/140/130
  90 Day Mean        11 Dec 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Dec  009/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

All times in UTC

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