Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 January 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
07/0052Z from Region 3182 (S17E46). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 07/0307Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 06/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
07/0351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (08 Jan, 10
Jan) and quiet levels on day two (09 Jan). Protons have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10
Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jan 179 Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 180/178/178 90 Day Mean 07 Jan 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 008/008-006/005-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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