Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 January 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Jan 14 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Jan 2023	209	012
15 Jan 2023	207	009
16 Jan 2023	207	011

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity remained at moderate levels in the past 24 hours with background high C-class flaring and a single low M-class flares. The are ten active regions on the visible solar disc. The largest and most complex active regions are NOAA 3186 and NOAA 3184, which evolved into beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, but nevertheless remained silent. NOAA AR 3182 (beta-gamma) significantly decreased in area and number of sunspots and produced multiple high C-class flaring, including a C9.1-class with peak 17:01 UTC on Jan 13th. NOAA AR 3181 has produced several C-class flares from behind the west limb. New active regions, NOAA 3190 (alpha) and NOAA 3192 (beta), evolved and produced high C-class flaring, while NOAA 3191 (beta) produced a long duration M1.3-class, start time 01:28 UTC, end time 03:28 UTC, peak time 02:10 UTC on Jan 14th. NOAA 3185 (beta), NOAA 3188 (beta) and a newly numbered NOAA 3189 (beta) have remained quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with remaining likely isolated M-class flaring and minor chances for an X-class flare.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton has returned to nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain below radiation storm levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions (ACE and DSCOVR) were enhanced, indicating a high speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole, possibly mixed a transient feature. The solar wind velocity increased from 351 km/s to above 550 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field peaked at 10.8 nT with a minimum Bz of -10.2 nT. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced today and decline towards ambient slow solar wind conditions on Jan 15th. Further enhancements could be expected on Jan 16th with a possible glancing blow arrival of a CME which left the solar surface around 17 UTC on Jan 11th.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to active. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with chances for isolated active periods.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 216, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Jan 2023

Wolf number Catania	198
10cm solar flux	209
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	018
Estimated Ap	015
Estimated international sunspot number	183 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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