Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 January 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
17/0013Z from Region 3192 (N19E26). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (18 Jan,
19 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (20 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 458 km/s at 16/2110Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/0951Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at
17/1925Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 469 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (18 Jan, 20
Jan) and quiet to active levels on day two (19 Jan). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Jan,
19 Jan, 20 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| Class M | 60% | 55% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 222 Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 220/220/218 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 008/010-011/016-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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