Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 January 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/2329Z from Region 3190 (S14E20). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (19 Jan,
20 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (21 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 490 km/s at 18/0405Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 17/2359Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
17/2302Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 553 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20
Jan, 21 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 220 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 220/218/215 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 012/016-010/012-012/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 35% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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