Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 January 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Jan 18 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
18 Jan 2023	221	022
19 Jan 2023	219	021
20 Jan 2023	220	017

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours with two M-class flares and several C-class flares being detected. The largest flares were a M1.8 flare, peaking at 23:29 UTC on Jan 17 and at 10:35 UTC on Jan 18, associated with the NOAA AR 3190 (beta-gamma class). The X-ray flux background has remained at the C level. NOAA AR 3182 has rotated over the west solar limb. NOAA AR 3194 decayed into plage. The remaining active regions have a simple configuration of the photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta). The solar flaring activity is expected to continue at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with likely isolated M-class flares and a chance for X-class flares.

During the last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours but could become enhanced over the next 24 hours with chances of reaching minor radiation storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters followed a declining trend until about 22:00 UTC on Jan 18. The solar wind speed was close to 350 km/s; the total interplanetary magnetic field was weak and below the value of 5 nT; and the southward interplanetary magnetic, Bz component, ranged between -1 nT and 3 nT. Since about 22:00 UTC on Jan 18, the total interplanetary magnetic field rose to 15 nT, with minimum value of Bz component -13 nT. The solar wind speed rose to the values around 450 km/s. This is probably associated with the arrival of the expected HSS from a positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to be elevated in the next days, with the possible further enhancement due to HSS from a positive polarity coronal hole and CME arrival on Jan 19.

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettle (K-Bel=1-3 NOAA-Kp=1-3) with a short period of active condition (NOAA- Kp=4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled to active in the next days, with possible isolated minor storm periods during next hours due to arrival of the HSS.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 197, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Jan 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	222
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	182 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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