Viewing archive of Tuesday, 31 January 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Jan 31 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
31 Jan 2023	141	010
01 Feb 2023	141	013
02 Feb 2023	141	007

Bulletin

There are five active regions visible on the solar disc, all of them with simple alpha or beta magnetic field configuration. Several C-class flares were detected in the last 24 hours. The strongest one was a C4.8 flare from NOAA AR 3207, peaking at 11:00 UTC. This active region rotated into view yesterday, and there is one more doing so today. Further C class flaring is expected, M-class flares are possible.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

A small equatorial coronal hole of negative polarity is expected to influence solar wind conditions in about 24 hours.

The solar wind speed at the Earth was below 400 km/s until 19:00 UTC on 30 January, when a higher speed solar wind stream arrived and increased velocities to values close to 500 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field reached 9 nT briefly, with Bz down to -7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field has a negative polarity on the ecliptic plane (towards the Sun). Slightly disturbed solar wind conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels during 1 hour locally (K_BEL = 4) and unsettled at planetary levels (Kp = 3). Mostly unsettled conditions, with possible active periods, expected for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 077, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Jan 2023

Wolf number Catania	095
10cm solar flux	136
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	073 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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