Viewing archive of Tuesday, 31 January 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
31/1100Z from Region 3207 (S11E65). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01
Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 31/1341Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 31/0018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
31/1622Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 473 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 137 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |