Viewing archive of Monday, 27 February 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
27/1022Z from Region 3234 (N25W22). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at minor storm to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 883 km/s at 27/1250Z. Total
IMF reached 20 nT at 27/1025Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -19 nT at 27/1030Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15 pfu at 26/2115Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 266 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (28 Feb), unsettled
to active levels on day two (01 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (02 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| Class M | 50% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Feb 161 Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 160/158/154 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 018/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 060/102 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 023/036-014/016-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 55% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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