Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 February 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 26/1200Z from Region 3235 (N19W34). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 01 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 26/2100Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 26/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 26/2058Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 58 pfu at 26/0440Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 141 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (27 Feb), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (28 Feb) and unsettled to active levels on day three (01 Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (27 Feb), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (28 Feb) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (01 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
Class M65%65%65%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton99%50%25%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Feb 159
  Predicted   27 Feb-01 Mar 155/150/150
  90 Day Mean        26 Feb 167

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Feb  017/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar  037/056-020/032-014/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%35%
Minor storm35%35%25%
Major-severe storm50%25%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active01%05%10%
Minor storm10%20%25%
Major-severe storm90%75%60%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/11/06X2.3
Last M-flare2024/11/08M1.4
Last geomagnetic storm2024/10/12Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
October 2024166.4 +25
November 2024190.1 +23.7
Last 30 days160.2 +7.9

This day in history*

Solar flares
12013X1.59
22001X1.3
32000X1.07
42001M6.04
52000M4.14
DstG
12004-374G4
21991-280G4
31998-149G4
41961-78G2
51999-73G1
*since 1994

Social networks