Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 February 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at
28/1750Z from Region 3234 (N25W36). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 784 km/s at 27/2141Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 28/1435Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 28/0044Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 735 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Mar), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (02 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (03
Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 45% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Feb 161 Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 160/160/156 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 060/109 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 018/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 013/016-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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