Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 February 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Feb 09 1236 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Feb 2023	205	013
10 Feb 2023	205	006
11 Feb 2023	200	005

Bulletin

The level of the solar flaring activity has stayed moderate over the past 24 hours. A total of 17 flares have been reported, of which 7 were M-class flares and 10 were C-class flares. All of the M-class flaring activity originated from NOAA AR3213 and NOAA AR3217. NOAA AR 3213 has now fully crossed the central meridian and has evolved into a beta-gamma-delta photospheric magnetic field configuration. NOAA AR3217 just rotated onto the visible side of the solar disk. The strongest flare reported was a M3.1 flare originating from NOAA AR3213 with peak time 03:10UT on February 9. We expect solar flaring activity to remain at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and with a small possibility of X-class flares.

During the last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed coronal mass ejections detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached the 1000 pfu threshold for a short period over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters of the last 24 hours still reflect conditions of the high speed stream that arrived on the 6th of February. The solar wind speed has been gradually declining from about 590 km/s to 520 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was around 5nT. We expect to see a continuation of the decline in the solar wind speed as we are returning towards slow solar wind conditions in the next 24 hours.

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were unsettled (K-Bel=2-4 NOAA-Kp=2-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 155, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Feb 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	192
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	018
Estimated Ap	020
Estimated international sunspot number	140 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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