Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 February 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
12/0848Z from Region 3217 (S12E22). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (13 Feb, 14 Feb)
and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day three (15 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 11/2159Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 11/2222Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
12/0215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1206 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Feb) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (13 Feb, 14 Feb) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (15 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| Class M | 80% | 75% | 65% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 200 Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 200/195/190 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 006/005-007/010-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 35% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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