Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 February 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Feb 12 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Feb 2023	205	005
13 Feb 2023	210	004
14 Feb 2023	207	004

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity reached high levels in the past 24 hours with 13 active regions on the visible solar disk. A total of 12 flares have been reported, with one low level X-class flare, 4 M-class flares and 7 C-class flares. An X1.1-class flare with peak time 15:48 UT on February 11 was produced by NOAA AR 3217 (beta-gamma-delta configuration of photospheric magnetic field). This region was also source of all other M-class flares. The other complex region, NOAA AR 3213 (beta-gamma configuration), has been mostly quiet. In the next 24 hours, we expect solar flaring activity to be at moderate levels with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and isolated X-class flares possible. The flaring activity originating from the NOAA AR 3213, which is currently well-connected to the Earth, could be associated with a particle event.

During the last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed coronal mass ejections detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. Due to the moderate flaring activity it is possible that the greater than 10 MeV proton flux may exceed this threshold over the next 24 hours if there are further high energy flares and eruptions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed was rather stable over the last 24 hours with values of about 470 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was about 4 nT. We expect to see a decline in the solar wind speed as we return towards slow solar wind conditions in the next 24 hours.

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were quiet with the K and Kp values between 1-2 as reported by the local station at Dourbes and NOAA, respectively. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 187, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Feb 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	210
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	185 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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