Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 February 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Feb 11 1236 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Feb 2023	215	013
12 Feb 2023	215	012
13 Feb 2023	215	007

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity stayed at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. A total of 25 flares have been reported, of which 7 were low M-class flares and 18 were C-class flares. The flaring originated from multiple regions including NOAA AR 3208, AR 3213, AR 3214, AR 3217, AR 3220 and AR 3222. The strongest flare was a M2.2 originating from NOAA AR 3208 which is rotating of the West solar limb. NOAA AR 3213 and NOAA AR 3217 show a complex photospheric magnetic field structure (beta-gamma/beta-delta and beta-gamma-delta respectively). We expect solar flaring activity to stay at moderate levels, with M-class flares expected and a small possibility of X-class flares. The flaring activity originating from the NOAA AR 3213, which is currently well-connected to the Earth, could be associated with a particle event.

During the last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed coronal mass ejections detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. Due to the moderate flaring activity it is possible that the greater than 10 MeV proton flux may exceed this threshold over the next 24 hours if there are further high energy flares and eruptions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed has stayed constant over the last 24 hours with values varying from 480 to 520 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was about 5 nT, with a mainly southward component. We expect to see a decline in the solar wind speed as we return towards slow solar wind conditions in the next 24 hours.

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were unsettled (K-Bel=2-3 NOAA-Kp=2-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 181, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Feb 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	208
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	018
Estimated Ap	018
Estimated international sunspot number	183 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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