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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
20/1458Z from Region 3234 (N24E76). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 20/1301Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 20/1139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
20/1822Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 471 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 Feb, 22 Feb) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Feb). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22
Feb, 23 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Feb 160 Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 158/156/152 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 012/015-010/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/07 | M2.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 194.5 +28.1 |
| Last 30 days | 160.1 +7.7 |