Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 March 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
19/1809Z from Region 3256 (S22E54). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar,
22 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 491 km/s at 19/1016Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 19/1713Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/0446Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 280 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Mar, 21 Mar) and
quiet levels on day three (22 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 143 Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 143/140/140 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 011/015-015/018-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 50% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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