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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 19/1809Z from Region 3256 (S22E54). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar, 22 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 491 km/s at 19/1016Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 19/1713Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/0446Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 280 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Mar, 21 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (22 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Mar 143
  Predicted   20 Mar-22 Mar 143/140/140
  90 Day Mean        19 Mar 170

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar  006/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Mar  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  011/015-015/018-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%15%
Minor storm15%15%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm45%50%20%

All times in UTC

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