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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/0148Z from Region 3256 (S20E39). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar,
23 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 20/1126Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 20/2034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/1335Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 335 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Mar) and quiet levels on
days two and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 156 Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 015/018-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
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