Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 March 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Mar 09 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Mar 2023	178	012
10 Mar 2023	176	006
11 Mar 2023	174	004

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels during the last 24 hours with one M1 flare detected yesterday 22:44 UT from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3245 (magnetic class Beta-Gamma, Catania group 10). Several C-class flares were also detected, most of them from NOAA AR 3245 and 3248 (magnetic class Beta, Catania group 8). Further M-class flare activity is possible but not probable, while frequently C-class activity is expected in the next 24 hours.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu alert threshold level for most of the time during the last 24 hours, but it has shown clear signs of decreace since today 03:00 UT. It is expected to remain below the threshold for most if not all of the time during the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to gradually return to low levels over the next 24 hours.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions are typical of the slow SW regime during last 24 hours, with the exception of an increase in the magnetic field that started today 04:00 UT. This is very likely the result of the glancing blow from a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) predicted to arrive yesterday evening or today morning. The SW speed decreased from 480 to 400 km/s, while the total magnetic field (Bt) was below 5 nT until the arrival of the disturbance that brought it to 6 nT. The biggest change took place on the North-South (Bz) component of the magnetic field that fluctuated between -4 and 4 nT until the glancing blow arrival and it is now mostly negative with a minimum value of -6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly directed towards the Sun over the last 24 hours. The effects of the CME are not expected to last long and they will probably end within the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were globally moderate and active for a short period of time today (NOAA Kp 3.3 03:00-06:00, Kp 4.3 06:00-09:00 UT) and quiet for the rest of the past 24 hours. Locally the conditions were moderate to quiet (K Doubres 1-3) throughout the last 24 hours. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to be moderate for the rest of the day today and quiet tomorrow.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 152, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Mar 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	182
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	154 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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