Viewing archive of Monday, 13 March 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 Mar 13 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Mar 2023	150	004
14 Mar 2023	148	011
15 Mar 2023	148	019

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity remained at low levels over the past 24 hours. Only two C-class flares were detected: C1.1 class flare from S27E26 on March 12 peaking at 20:05 UTC and C1.1-class flare from NOAA active region 3245 on March 12 peaking at 22:50 UTC. As there are no complex active regions observed on the visible side of the solar disk, solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares likely and a chance for M-class flares.

A full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in LASCO C2 imagery at 03:36 UTC on March 13. No associated on disc activity could be identified and the CME is judged to be backsided and is not expected to arrive to Earth. No other Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became elevated from around 04:30UTC on March 13, that is related to the back-sided full-halo CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has crossed the 10pfu event threshold around 07:50UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to exceed the 10pfu and later to follow a slowly decaying trend. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have been indicative of slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed has decreased from 380 km/s to 320 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field was between 4 nT to 6 nT. The orientation of the magnetic field was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun) with a variable north-south component Bz ranging between 0 to 6 nT. Similar slow solar wind regime is expected on March 13 with a slight wind speed enhancement possible from March 14, due to expected influence of the small equatorial coronal hole of positive polarity, which began to cross the central meridian on March 11.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally and locally quiet (NOAA Kp and K Bel 1-2). Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, until the arrival of the high speed stream when active conditions are expected, with possible isolated minor storm periods.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 104, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Mar 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	150
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	132 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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