Viewing archive of Monday, 13 March 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
13/1106Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one and two (14 Mar, 15 Mar) and likely to be low with a slight chance
for an M-class flare on day three (16 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 384 km/s at 12/2113Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
13/1732Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at
13/0137Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 13 pfu at 13/1435Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 399 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Mar) and quiet to minor
storm levels on days two and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (14 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 25% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 143 Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 142/140/145 90 Day Mean 13 Mar 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 011/012-020/025-021/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 65% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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