Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 March 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
14/0605Z from Region 3250 (S18W22). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (15 Mar, 16 Mar)
and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (17 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 14/0837Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 14/0431Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
14/0814Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 16 pfu at 14/2035Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 504 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (15 Mar, 16
Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Mar). Protons
greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (15 Mar)
and have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (16 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 99% | 25% | 01% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Mar 139 Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 140/142/150 90 Day Mean 14 Mar 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 013/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 020/025-021/025-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 70% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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