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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
20/0922Z from Region 3281 (S22W22). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Apr, 22 Apr,
23 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 1083 km/s at 20/0545Z. Total IMF reached 27 nT at
20/0610Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at
20/0610Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 113 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Apr), quiet to
active levels on day two (22 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (23 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
| Class M | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Apr 147 Predicted 21 Apr-23 Apr 145/140/135 90 Day Mean 20 Apr 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Apr 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr 017/020-014/016-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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