Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 May 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
17/1628Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 May, 19 May,
20 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 488 km/s at 16/2101Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
16/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
17/0016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 162 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 May, 19 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (20 May).
III. Event Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 May 138 Predicted 18 May-20 May 140/138/135 90 Day Mean 17 May 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 006/005-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May to 20 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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