Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 May 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
16/1643Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May,
19 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 15/2314Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 16/0706Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/0637Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 May, 19 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (17 May).
III. Event Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 134 Predicted 17 May-19 May 140/145/140 90 Day Mean 16 May 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 008/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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