Viewing archive of Monday, 12 June 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
12/0658Z from Region 3330 (N18W59). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13
Jun, 14 Jun, 15 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 12/1531Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 12/1559Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
12/1503Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 169 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Jun) and quiet levels on
days two and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jun 146 Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 146/148/146 90 Day Mean 12 Jun 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 010/012-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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