Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
09/0009Z from Region 3366 (S10W38). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul,
12 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 451 km/s at 08/2111Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
08/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/1811Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 860 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Jul, 11 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (12 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 179 Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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