Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
08/0144Z from Region 3361 (N24W12). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul,
11 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 07/2123Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 08/2047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
07/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 830 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Jul, 10 Jul) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 161 Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 160/155/155 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 016/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 011/012-009/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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