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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
24/1305Z from Region 3283 (S23W56). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (25 Apr, 26 Apr)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (27 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 636 km/s at 24/0059Z. Total
IMF reached 34 nT at 24/0041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -33 nT at 24/0106Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 23/2125Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 349 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 Apr), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (26 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (27 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Apr 134 Predicted 25 Apr-27 Apr 135/130/125 90 Day Mean 24 Apr 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr 032/082 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr 043/079 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 019/022-007/008-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 20% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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