Viewing archive of Tuesday, 25 April 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/0807Z from Region 3288 (S22E24). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 25/0229Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 24/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/1807Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 369 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Apr), unsettled to
active levels on day two (27 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (28 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Apr 131 Predicted 26 Apr-28 Apr 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 25 Apr 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr 039/072 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 007/008-015/018-019/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |