Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 May 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 May 23 1238 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
23 May 2023	160	013
24 May 2023	162	015
25 May 2023	160	019

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity remained at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. The strongest activity was an impulsive M1.9-flare, start time 13:30 UTC, peak time 13:37 UTC, end time 13:58 UTC on May 22nd, produced by NOAA AR 3312 (beta). This region produced a few low C-class flaring as well. The remaining multiple C-class flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3311 (beta-gamma-delta), which has slightly reduced its size and trailing sunspots, but continues to be the most complex sunspot group on the visible solar disc. NOAA AR 3305 has now fully rotated behind the west limb, followed by NOAA 3308 (beta). NOAA AR 3314 has decayed into plage, while a new faint regions has developed to the south of NOAA AR 3311. Active regions NOAA 3310 (beta) and NOAA 3313 (alpha) have been mostly stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low to moderate levels over the next days with some chances for isolated X-class flaring from NOAA AR 3311.

Coronal mass ejections

A slow faint coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery after 14:00 UTC on May 22nd. The CME is related to the impulsive low M-class flaring from NOAA AR 3312 with an accompanying on disc dimming and a type II radio burst detected around 13:40 UTC. The bulk of the CME is expected to miss Earth, but a weak glancing blow could arrive late on May 25th. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) Solar wind parameters reflected the influence of a high speed stream (HSS) arrival from a negative polarity coronal hole. The solar wind velocity reached 688 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained slightly elevated with a maximum value of 10.43 nT and a minimum Bz of -9.41 nT. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated over the next days with the ongoing HSS passage.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally unsettled to active. Quiet to active conditions were observed locally over Belgium. Mostly quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with remaining chances for isolated minor storms under the ongoing high speed stream influence and due to a possible glancing blow ICME arrival late on May 25th.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has reached the 1000 pfu threshold and remained close to it in the interval of 14:00 and 17:30 UTC on May 22nd. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is currently approaching the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to exceeded in the upcoming hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to periodically exceed the 1000 pfu threshold in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to be at the boundary of nominal to moderate levels at fist and then increase towards moderate levels over the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 126, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 22 May 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	162
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	023
Estimated Ap	026
Estimated international sunspot number	131 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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