Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 May 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2023 May 24 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
24 May 2023	154	010
25 May 2023	148	020
26 May 2023	146	015

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours remained at moderate levels with a single low M-class flare, namely an impulsive M1.0 with peak time 09:58 UTC on May 24th produced by NOAA AR 3311 (beta-gamma-delta). This region was the main driver for the flaring activity and previously produced an impulsive M3.1 flare with peak time 12:13 UTC on May 23rd. It remains the most complex region on the visible solar disc and has significantly increased its number of trailing spots. Isolated C-class flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3305 from behind the west limb, by plage region NOAA 3314 and by a rotating region at the east limb. NOAA AR 3310 (beta) is the second largest region on the visible disc, which has also some increment in the number of trailing spots. Nevertheless the region remained quiet. The new active region in the south-east quadrant, NOAA 3315 (beta), has been silent. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at low to moderate levels over the next days with chances for an isolated X-class flaring from NOAA AR 3311.

Coronal mass ejections

A fast full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery at 10:24 UTC on May 23rd. A type IV fast radio burst emission was first detected at 11:20 UTC the same day. The CME appears back-sided, possibly related to activity from an active region behind the east limb. No impact on Earth is expected. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) Solar wind parameters reflected the continuous influence of a high speed stream (HSS) from a negative polarity coronal hole. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 503 km/s to 636 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 5.6 nT and a minimum Bz of -5.3 nT. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated over the next days with the ongoing HSS passage and possible glancing blow arrival late on May 25th and May 26th.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to active. Mostly quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with remaining chances for isolated minor storms under the ongoing high speed stream influence and due to a possible glancing blow ICME passage late on May 25th and May 26th.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so with possible enhancements in case of increased levels of solar activity over the next days

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has crossed the 1000 pfu threshold for prolonged periods of time. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at that enhanced levels in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at the border of nominal levels to moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels over the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 140, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 23 May 2023

Wolf number Catania	156
10cm solar flux	155
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	015
Estimated international sunspot number	123 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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