Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 May 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/1721Z from Region 3311 (N18W08). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (25 May) and expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (26 May, 27 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 636 km/s at 23/2130Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 24/1606Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
23/2108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2693 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 May, 26 May) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 May). Protons greater than 10
Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (27 May).
III. Event Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
| Class M | 30% | 40% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 May 164 Predicted 25 May-27 May 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 24 May 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 012/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 010/012-013/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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