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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
31/2252Z from Region 3323 (S05E68). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (02 Jun, 03 Jun, 04 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 01/1616Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 01/0531Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
01/0547Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 243 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Jun), quiet to
active levels on day two (03 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (04 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (02 Jun, 03 Jun, 04 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jun 164 Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 160/155/155 90 Day Mean 01 Jun 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 011/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 010/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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