Viewing archive of Friday, 5 May 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 05/0801Z from Region 3296 (N16E20). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May, 08 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 05/1413Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05/0229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 04/2312Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5024 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 May), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (07 May) and active to major storm levels on day three (08 May).
III. Event Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
Class M55%55%55%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 May 162
  Predicted   06 May-08 May 165/165/165
  90 Day Mean        05 May 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 May  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  013/015-018/026-030/046

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%30%
Minor storm10%25%40%
Major-severe storm01%10%20%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%05%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm30%30%65%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/11/06X2.3
Last M-flare2024/11/08M1.4
Last geomagnetic storm2024/10/12Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
October 2024166.4 +25
November 2024194.5 +28.1
Last 30 days160.1 +7.7

This day in history*

Solar flares
12013X1.59
22001X1.3
32000X1.07
42001M6.04
52000M4.14
DstG
12004-374G4
21991-280G4
31998-149G4
41961-78G2
51999-73G1
*since 1994

Social networks