Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 May 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
05/2227Z from Region 3288. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot
regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(07 May, 08 May, 09 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 06/1037Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 06/0452Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 06/0401Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 3102 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (07 May), active to
severe storm levels on day two (08 May) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (09 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).
III. Event Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 152 Predicted 07 May-09 May 155/155/160 90 Day Mean 06 May 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 022/034 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 024/032-036/055-019/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 40% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 65% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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